Current position of Öræfajökull:
There are clear signs of turbulence in Öræfajökull, but the mountain has expanded, at least from the beginning of 2016-17.
The expansion is accompanied by increased earthquake activity and deformation, which occurs in the processing of satellite data and GPS measurements.
There is no indication that the velocity of the expansion is decreasing, even though geothermal power has declined since December 2017.
The cause of the expansion is considered to be the insertion of a new magma in the root of the volcano. The volume change since this scenario has begun is of the order of 10 million cubic meters (about 0.2 m3 / s), which is comparable to the momentum in Eyjafjallajökull in the years before the eruption of 2010.
New resistance measurements show a small depth of geothermal formation inside the Öræfajökull caldera, which is a sign of the existence of a high-temperature system, similar to that seen in many main stations in Iceland.
Possible development:
The activity of Öræfajökull is now typical of volcanic eruptions. The activity can stop before an eruption occurs, but nothing can be said at this stage.
One possible consequence of the current development is increased geothermal power that could cause glacial rupture and gas pollution.
Response to civil protection and other parties:
Meetings have been held with residents and tourism organizations in the area where they have been informed of the events in recent months in Öræfajökull. It is planned to hold meetings with the same parties at the end of September, which will review the state of affairs.
A drainage plan has been prepared for the eruption site, which will be activated by accident or without warning. The emergency plan can be found here: https://www.almannavarnir.is/utgefid efni/neydarryming-oraefajokull/?wpdmdl=23348
Work is being done on the implementation of a contingency plan for volcanic eruptions in Öræfajökull in the field of civil protection in the province.
Volcanic surveillance equipment has been increasing significantly, and the Icelandic Meteorological Observatory is closely monitoring events. They send alerts for civil protection if they become aware of changes.
The Icelandic Meteorological Institute, the University of Iceland Earth Sciences Institute and Icelandic Energy Research with the Jöklar Research Association of Iceland have worked on further research on Öræfajökull in recent quarters to increase understanding of increased earthquake activity in Öræfajökull, the expansion of the volcano and changes in geothermal power.
Telecommunications companies have been working to improve mobile communications in Öræfum.